Montanarchist
02-19-2010, 03:36 PM
My life has been keeping me busy the last few weeks, but I thought I'd make this post for futrure reference's sake:
The main thing to keep in mind is that ATM, nothing has been solved. Billions of $$$ have been poured on banksters while productive industries are being gradually erased from our lives. Whatever "greenshoots" or potentials for a turnaround you might spot are misleading. Things will get proggressively worse from here.
Euroland is facing massive problems. The structural debt problem with Greece and Spain will be problematic to overcome, to say the least. Continental Europe enormous losses in Eastern Europe as well as deficits in Italy and Belgium and a number of other states.
UK has nothing positive to come with. They have bailed out their banking sector (which they probably will have to do again) but they have no sensible economy outside of finance. They've been scrapping their industry for 30 yrs and do not posses the productivity, knowledge or wages to compete anymore. They can no longer handle their trade deficit.
The US govt. have also bailed out their banking system. Other than that, things look dark. Commercial real estate will collapse, and then, even if everything is going accordingly to plan, there will be a structural deficit of $1-2 Trillion that will continue until 2020. But more likely is that the public sector will have blown up by then. The US will loose their govt. and political system when nobody is there to pay for it.
China has the highest chance of getting the best deal out of this, but not even they are completely safe. Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses, and there's no bigger credit excess than in China.
It will look like this:
1. First financial crisis 2007-2009.
2. Temporary stabilization due to enormous bailouts. 2009-20010/2011.
3. Second financial crisis. Will happen when peopel realize that the enormous deficits are strucural and a lot of debt in the system that can't be payed back still lures. 2010/2011-?
4. Stabilization, but no growth. All of the west is transformed into paying of debt in the manner this is possible, but due to recelcitrance from politicians that the democratic system gives us (people vote on what sounds good, not what is good) the shock will come in a much worse manner and war/coup/collapse will follow.
The reality of the situation is that if things get that bad (which they will) our economy won't be able to feed 300 million people, because of lack of agricultural capital investments, collapsing infrastructure and etc. When the capital structure collapses we run in to a dog eats dog scenario.
My advice right now is to try to grow a garden. If you don't have any experience, start with Zucchinis, they're easy to grow. Local economies that are prepared will have the ability to prosper when the national economy is gone.
"If you're out camping, and a bear attacks, you don't have to be faster than the bear. You only have to be faster than slowest camper." - Michael Ruppert.
The main thing to keep in mind is that ATM, nothing has been solved. Billions of $$$ have been poured on banksters while productive industries are being gradually erased from our lives. Whatever "greenshoots" or potentials for a turnaround you might spot are misleading. Things will get proggressively worse from here.
Euroland is facing massive problems. The structural debt problem with Greece and Spain will be problematic to overcome, to say the least. Continental Europe enormous losses in Eastern Europe as well as deficits in Italy and Belgium and a number of other states.
UK has nothing positive to come with. They have bailed out their banking sector (which they probably will have to do again) but they have no sensible economy outside of finance. They've been scrapping their industry for 30 yrs and do not posses the productivity, knowledge or wages to compete anymore. They can no longer handle their trade deficit.
The US govt. have also bailed out their banking system. Other than that, things look dark. Commercial real estate will collapse, and then, even if everything is going accordingly to plan, there will be a structural deficit of $1-2 Trillion that will continue until 2020. But more likely is that the public sector will have blown up by then. The US will loose their govt. and political system when nobody is there to pay for it.
China has the highest chance of getting the best deal out of this, but not even they are completely safe. Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses, and there's no bigger credit excess than in China.
It will look like this:
1. First financial crisis 2007-2009.
2. Temporary stabilization due to enormous bailouts. 2009-20010/2011.
3. Second financial crisis. Will happen when peopel realize that the enormous deficits are strucural and a lot of debt in the system that can't be payed back still lures. 2010/2011-?
4. Stabilization, but no growth. All of the west is transformed into paying of debt in the manner this is possible, but due to recelcitrance from politicians that the democratic system gives us (people vote on what sounds good, not what is good) the shock will come in a much worse manner and war/coup/collapse will follow.
The reality of the situation is that if things get that bad (which they will) our economy won't be able to feed 300 million people, because of lack of agricultural capital investments, collapsing infrastructure and etc. When the capital structure collapses we run in to a dog eats dog scenario.
My advice right now is to try to grow a garden. If you don't have any experience, start with Zucchinis, they're easy to grow. Local economies that are prepared will have the ability to prosper when the national economy is gone.
"If you're out camping, and a bear attacks, you don't have to be faster than the bear. You only have to be faster than slowest camper." - Michael Ruppert.